Transition Challenges to Alternative Fuel Vehicles in Developing Countries: A System Dynamics Approach

Project Details

• Student(s): Ali Bayram, Carl Geara, Charbel Korbani, Bechara Saliba
• Advisor(s): Dr. Marc Haddad
• Department: Industrial & Mechanical
• Academic Year(s): 2024-2025

Abstract

The global transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is accelerating, driven by environmental goals and technological advances. However, most modeling and policy analyses focus on developed countries, overlooking the unique systemic constraints of emerging economies. This study applies a System Dynamics (SD) approach to model the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles in the Lebanese context which is characterized by poor charging infrastructure, dirty electricity supply and fragile grid distribution, and a fragmented regulatory environment. The SD model integrates energy and infrastructure dynamics, economic constraints, and policy interventions with a focus on feedback behaviors that impact go back to impact different parts of the system at the national scale. The model building is in progress, with key findings thus far suggesting the need for targeted incentives, improved grid reliability, and early and scoped infrastructure investment, in order to help Lebanon achieve meaningful EV penetration in line with global and regional trends.